Peiman Salehi – Political Analyst & Writer

By Peiman Salehi
In the wake of the twelve-day war between Iran and Israel, many observers in Iran—and increasingly within the international analytical community—are voicing concern over the imminence of a much larger conflict. Despite the costs of the previous confrontation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems poised to repeat the same strategic mistake—this time with potentially more serious and irreversible consequences.

From the perspective of many Iranian analysts, Netanyahu’s motivations no longer stem from national security or regional deterrence. Rather, they reflect a desperate political calculus: to ensure his survival amid mounting domestic opposition, judicial investigations, and a legitimacy crisis. From this angle, his turn to external conflict is no longer about protecting Israel, but about shielding himself from accountability.

Netanyahu’s strategy echoes an age-old tactic used by embattled leaders: to sustain or provoke military conflict in order to divert public attention, delay internal audits, and reframe political debates as existential crises. But the repeated use of this tactic yields diminishing returns: each new escalation further exposes the limits of Israeli military effectiveness and deepens the country’s isolation on the international stage.

The recent war offered major revelations. Iran, acting alone and without mobilizing its allied networks (such as Hezbollah or Iraqi militias – PMU), launched sustained missile strikes into the heart of Israeli territory. Despite massive investments in air defense and intelligence cooperation with Western allies, Israel failed to prevent significant damage to its strategic infrastructure. More importantly, Iran’s retaliation demonstrated not only military capability but also the resilience of its strategic doctrine.

For Netanyahu, however, the war did not end in a decisive Israeli victory. And therein lies the political danger: for hawks, a ceasefire without clear victory is tantamount to defeat. Facing growing pressure—from protesters, political rivals, and the judiciary—Netanyahu appears trapped in a war-driven survival strategy. As long as the conflict continues, accountability is postponed. Unanswered questions linger. Critics are branded as disloyal. War becomes the adhesive holding together his crumbling grip on power.

Yet this cycle is fundamentally unsustainable. Each escalation brings Israel closer to the edge—militarily, diplomatically, and economically. With every exchanged missile and war-focused media headline, Israel’s strategic depth erodes, its alliances weaken, and its deterrent credibility wanes. Worse still, it becomes increasingly evident that Netanyahu is sacrificing long-term national security to secure short-term political survival.

In Tehran, anticipation of a new conflict is matched by thorough preparation. Authorities and analysts are bracing for another round—one that neither Israel can fully win nor Iran endure without reprisal. Unlike the previous clash, a fresh escalation could trigger a broader regional alignment—potentially involving Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other militias in the region. And while the United States might again back Israel, the core question remains: at what cost?

Netanyahu’s gamble is not merely military—it is existential. By instrumentalizing war for political ends, he has misjudged the shifting regional dynamics. Iran has demonstrated its ability to absorb strikes and respond in an asymmetric, calibrated manner. More significantly, it has reframed the narrative: survival is victory, and resistance in the face of overwhelming power becomes an act of resilience.

If Netanyahu continues down this path, Israel may soon find itself embroiled in a protracted conflict from which it cannot emerge without internal political crisis. The danger lies not only in military defeat but in strategic exhaustion, international isolation, and internal collapse.

Ultimately, a nation’s strength is not measured by how many wars it can initiate, but by the wisdom it shows in avoiding the wrong ones. Netanyahu’s relentless pursuit of conflict may provide temporary political shelter, but at the cost of Israel’s future. The world is watchingand many are beginning to realize that the real threat to Israel’s security may not come from outside, but from within its own leadership.

This article was originally published in French by Dedefensa:
🔗 La dépendance de Netanyahou à la guerre – Dedefensa.org